Last year during the offseason, I wrote about why the Redskins absolutely needed to sign Kirk Cousins to a long-term deal. There were basically two decisions that were being heavily weighed: sign to a long-term deal after his first full- and really good season- or, place the franchise tag on him, essentially creating more of a prove-it season, determining if he was deserving of a long-term, huge $ contract. The decision was made, and with no long-term deal being reached by the 7/15 deadline, the franchise tag was indeed placed on him for the 2016 season.
In a lot of ways, the 2016 season for Cousins was even better than the 2015 season. He surpassed his 2015 yards (and Redskins QB record) total and fell just short of the elite and revered 5,000 passing yards mark, at a gaudy 4,917. Why elite, in terms of 5,000+ yards? Because the only QB's in NFL history to pass for 5,000+ yards are Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Dan Marino and Matthew Stafford. That's it. Cousins completed 67% of his passes, good for 8th in the NFL, and ahead of Aaron Rodgers. He was also 3rd overall in yards per attempt at 8.11, making the completion % that much more impressive. He was 13th overall with 25 TD passes, ahead of MVP candidate Matt Stafford. Led by Cousins, the high-octane offense certainly had no problems moving the ball, as they finished #2 overall in the NFL with 39.8 yards per drive. In total yards per game, the offense finished with a team record and staggering total of 6,454 yards, good for 3rd overall in the NFL. And I might add, if not for the red-zone offensive inefficiencies, the team point totals (and QB passes for Cousins) could have been a lot higher. And then in QB rating, Cousins was #7 overall at 97.2.
But perhaps even more impressive is when you take into consideration the advanced stats of several other key elements in evaluating QB's. Some of these, I had never even heard of until doing this expanded research! Now the first, and more commonly known is the overall "QBR", which takes into account several factors such as: passes dropped, passes thrown away intentionally, and scrambles and planned runs. Total QBR also has a "clutch" factor, for how a QB performs in high leverage situations. And beginning in 2016, QBR was also adjusted for strength of opponent. Then when we go beyond the QBR stat, there are several other advanced stats worth noting. The first is "DYAR", which is defense-adjusted yards above replacement. This is essentially the value of the QB's performance compared to replacement level, and is adjusted based on opponent and game situations, translated to total yardage. Cousins was ranked #3 overall in DYAR. Another stat is "DVOA", which is defense-adjusted value over average. These stats represent a QB's value per play, over an average QB in similar in-game situations. Cousins ranked #5 overall in this stat.
Outside of these specific impressive stats for overall evaluation, I then came across some additional eye-popping categories that really jumped out to me. Al Galdi, one of my personal favorite local sports radio guys (also a die-hard Redskins and O's fan like myself!), is quite simply one of the best statisticians, and especially advanced analytics guys I know of. He put together some incredible factors to consider, as to how much better Kirk Cousins may be than looking at the initial surface of the most commonly known stats of evaluation. Besides some of the advanced stats I mentioned above, Galdi also references how Kirk led ALL NFL QB's in "air yards" in 2016. Galdi says,
"Air Yards are the total yards a football is thrown beyond the line of scrimmage to the point of reception. The number is arrived at by subtracting Yards After Catch (YAC) from total passing yards. The idea with tracking Air Yards is to differentiate between those quarterbacks who are Checkdown Charlies or benefit greatly from YAC from those quarterbacks who “earn” their passing yardage with accurate and downfield throwing. Kirk’s 2,939 Air Yards per SportingCharts.com were 143 more than the next-best total (Drew Brees’ 2,796). Remember this the next time you hear that Kirk is just a dink-and-dunk passer or is simply a product of the system or his weapons. Kirk was 10th in the NFL in Air Yards in 2015 (2,258)."
The next stat that Galdi mentions that jumped out to me that I was not aware of is that Cousins faced the toughest schedule of opposing defenses that any QB faced during the 2016 season. He elaborates to say,
"Nine of the Redskins' 16 games were against teams that finished the season in the top 11 of the NFL in total defense: Pittsburgh (no. 11), the Giants twice (no. 2), Baltimore (no. 6), Philadelphia twice (no. 4), Minnesota (no. 9), Arizona (no. 3) and Carolina (no. 10). The Redskins faced just the 28th-toughest schedule in 2015. A lot of people like to discount Kirk's 2015 due to the opposition. Fine. Then upgrade his 2016 due to the opposition."
So now a big question is, how should Kirk Cousins be considered and "ranked" overall among the top NFL QB's? Should he be considered a top 10 QB? Or, perhaps even top 5? Where would the league analysts and GM's have him? No doubt, a tough answer. Personally, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that Cousins is not one of the top 5- elite QB's in the league. I also don't think it's necessarily unreasonable to say he's not in the top 10. Would most NFL coaches and GM's say they would take 5, or perhaps even 10 QB's ahead of Cousins if having their pick? Perhaps. This is a key factor. That said, do I think that one day, Cousins could widely be considered a top 10- possibly even a top 5 QB? Yes! At only 28, having played only 2 full seasons in the league, and showing continued improvement in his play, why not think he can get better? Though the stats aren't everything, they certainly help paint a good picture. I am personally hopeful, and think he can and will get even better. Besides his on the field success and improvement, he has the kinds of intangibles that I believe makes him the kind of guy you want to build your team around. He works extremely hard- on his body physically, in the film room, and on the field. He's a leader. And he's humble. One of the best windows I have personally benefitted from in trying to evaluate who Kirk Cousins is and how he thinks is simply by listening to his many weekly in-season interviews on 106.7 "The Fan" with Grant Paulsen and Danny Rouhier. There are little things I have picked up on that I think are impressive intangibles, such as the way he talks about his diet and sleep: What he eats, and when he allows himself "cheat meals". When he sleeps, and how much sleep he needs. He is no doubt very disciplined. In his interview immediately following the disappointing and devastating season ending loss to the Giants, Cousins said several things that caught my attention to enhance my feelings about him personally and his outstanding intangibles. One thing he said- and it was also how he said it- was how he wished he could just get right back at it, and begin relentless preparation for the next game- and the next season, right now. The loss stung. He was appropriately affected by it. And when talking about the game clinching INT, he completely took it on himself and accepted blame, talking about the way he threw it, and perhaps waiting too long and second guessing himself. He accepted it as a man. No blame shifting. He also talked about ways he believes he needs to improve his play. And when ending the call, he communicated his gratefulness and love to both Grant and Danny for the opportunity all season, and for the great times. Very articulate. Very genuine. And very humble. The kind of guy I would personally want to build my team around.
Getting back to how he is currently "ranked" among the current NFL QB's. Even if he's not currently a "top 5" or "top 10" QB, what does the current NFL market say about his value? Does he deserve to be paid as a top 5 QB, in terms of what he has accomplished in his career vs. the current top 5 paid QB's? Now of course I would say no, as would most people. But that's not the point. One factor to consider is the current supply and demand of top QB talent. In this QB-driven league with so many teams desperately needing help, if Cousins is indeed made available on the open market, multiple teams would be clamoring for his services and likely create a bidding war. No doubt the market would likely get him paid "top 5" $ in this scenario. Next, with the rapidly increasing salary cap and thus contracts continually on the rise, the total amount that a "top" QB currently makes will soon not seem like as much in relative comparison to the salaries that the upward market trend will soon command. The key factor is more about the percentage of the teams cap space that the current QB market has and will command, which of course will make the total $ number a little higher than some of the comparable percentage of team cap deals that top QB's are currently paid. I have no doubt that in order for the Redskins to get a long-term deal with Cousins done, they need to have his cap percentage value be comparable to the current top 5 QB % range. And even going beyond this, it wouldn't shock me- primarily because of the mentioned supply and demand and increasing salary cap factors- if we see Cousins get the highest contract in the history of the NFL. And I will go on to say that if this is what it takes: even making Cousins the highest paid NFL player, the Redskins absolutely have to do it. The mega deal that Andrew Luck received last offseason, at 5 years and $122M and $87M guaranteed is the likely market range it will take to get a long-term deal done.
So what do the Redskins do? What should they do? Today, February 15, 2017 is the first day that teams can assign franchise or transition tags. The official and critical two week window of opportunity begins now. By March 1st at 4PM, teams must apply one of these tag options. And then if a tag is indeed the first step, the Redskins would have until mid-July to work out a long-term deal.
All signs seem to currently point to the Redskins applying one of the tags. And Cousins has said he is ok playing under the tag again if it comes to that. He has also said that if he had a long-term deal, he would have more "freedom to lead." My stance remains the same as it was last year, and I would say even more emphatic now than last year: the Redskins absolutely must sign Cousins to a mega, long-term deal. Sure, the possibility of a couple of high draft picks as compensation (perhaps from Kyle Shanahan with the 49ers) is somewhat enticing if offered. But the flip side risk in not retaining a highly successful- and I believe still improving- QB in this league is too substantial. For a franchise that has wandered in the QB-starved desert and had no stability at this crucial position for the better part of the past 25 plus years, they simply cannot afford to roll the dice on letting Cousins walk. Besides the risk of letting just Cousins potentially get away and not lock him up long-term, is how a decision like this would also have an organizational snowball effect. Let's say that Cousins is indeed tagged, leaving this uncertainty of his future in DC. I believe the impact of this also filters into the decisions of pending free agents of not only those who have been here (like Garcon and Jackson), but also for those who may consider coming here, when league-wide free agency begins on March 9th. If Cousins is here long-term, I would think it would make free agents more enticed to stay and come here- especially in seeing stability and continuity- whereas if there is no certainty of the future direction, I believe it makes these free agent decisions a lot more difficult.
Yes, I still trust in GM Scot McCloughan to ultimately do what he thinks is best. And I hope that what indeed would be his preference- Cousins here long-term- would happen without interference from anyone at the top and that all parties would be on the same page, and work hard towards swift and mutual resolution. The clock is ticking. And I believe the Redskins have no choice but to go all in and give Cousins what it will take to keep him here. For the long-term.
